Simulating urban growth in the George town conurbation

Abstract

Simulation of land use changes has been discussed at length, with increasing papers proposing new methods to predict urban growth. Simulating urban growth can provide a clearer view of urban expansion which gave huge impact in developing a city. This phenomenon, however, also has driven the encroachment into agricultural and forest land in order to cater urban growth expansion. Therefore, this paper aims to develop an urban growth simulation model using GIS-based CA-Markov approach, incorporated with driving forces of urban growth in the Malaysian context. Land use data based on year 2006, 2010 and 2014 of the study area were prepared in a GIS database and used to develop and validate a CA-Markov Model using Idrisi Kilimanjaro software. The findings indicated new or expanded built-up areas of 2018 are found to be located in close proximity to existing growth centers and settlements.

Keywords: CA-Markov; Geograpghic Information Sciences (GIS); Land use changes;
Urbanization.