Improving unprecedented restlessness as the new strong indicator of rice crisis at national level

Abstract

Rice crisis that can happen sooner or later will give accurate and very important information about the predicted time of crisis in Indonesia. This paper was performed to improve and develop a new rice crisis indicator. The tested hypothesis i.e. unprecedented restlessness (UR) is the strong indicator of rice crisis. UR is tested massively in nineteen countries. This research has successfully identified that UR is a strong indicator for rice crisis at Asia level. Despite in the previous research, UR has passed two statistic tests namely rg and Q. However, both tests need to fulfill the success of probability (SP) and constraint probability (CP) in order to provide strong indicator properties. Thus, it is critical to assess the extent to which UR meets the above two criteria. This paper recommends UR can be used to assess the effectiveness of an agricultural plan in order to avoid rice crisis. 

Keywords: success probability; constraint probability; uncontrollable riot; validity; MI-CHART