Modelling of the relation of natural disasters and the economic growth using neural network

Abstract

In the recent years, the phenomenon of global climate change has approached a growing and accelerating process and the dangers caused by it are strongly threatening all the dimensions of humans’ lives. It is obvious that economy and production and commerce ability of the countries are also under the influence of natural changes. But when the changes and natural challenges finds a high speed or volume, they are called natural incident or natural disaster. Natural incidents, in addition to damages to life and emotion that set upon human’s heart and soul, it will also be followed by hard monetary expenses. This study, with taking some distance from theoretical models which they have expressed on this matter, has tried to model the relation of expense caused by natural incidents and economic growth using the technique of neural network. The results from data analysis with neural network show that natural incidents and the amount of expense caused by it have influence on the economic growth and through reliance on that, the economic growth can be predicted.

Keywords: Natural Disasters, Neural Network Model, Economic Growth and  Development,Prediction