Binary Models for Assessment of Conflicts between Forestry and Agricultural Land Uses in Southwest Nigeria

Abstract

Conflict over natural resources such as land, water and forest is ubiquitous. Societies everywhere have competed for natural resources to enhance their livelihoods. Agriculture production and forest conservation are vital natural resources in the rural land use development and closely integrated to each other in a long history of human civilization. However, the promotion of one often leads to destruction of the other. Higher agricultural production improves farmers’ well being as well as higher economic growth. In the same vein, forests are very important for biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, soil restoration, timber supply and people’s livelihoods. Binary models were developed using field data collected from four states in the Southwest of Nigeria namely Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo states to assess a number of factors causing conflicts between forestry and agricultural land uses. The models predict the probability that a respondent (i.e. a stakeholder) will support or against conflicts between forestry and agricultural land uses in relation to independent variables which include Poor Documentation and Records of Admitted Farms (PDRAF), Unsustainable Agriculture Practices and Technologies (UAPT), Obsolete Land Use Decree and Lack of Land Use Reform (OLUDLLUR), High Population Growth (HPG), Forest Reservation Process (FRP), Poor Sectoral Integration among Land Use Sectors (PSILUS), Absence of Conflict Management Strategies in Agricultural and Forest Policies (ACMSAFP), High Demand for Farming and Mining (HDFFM) and Multi-Stakeholders and their Diverse Interests (MSTDI). The results of the binary logistic model for Land use conflicts between forestry and agricultural sectors in the Southwest Nigeria indicated overall significant fit to the data judging from the chi square value (df, 9) = 2032.3 that is significant at p<0.05. The final loss of the model indicated a value of 36.77. Land use conflicts between forestry and agricultural sectors in the Southwest Nigeria were best predicted by MSTDI, HDFFM and PSILUS with odds ratio of 108269E6, 3703.33 and 1.08. The higher the odds ratio, the more influential the factors causing conflicts of land use between forestry and agricultural sectors. The specific models developed for the four states in the Southwest Nigeria, depend on the locations where the data were collected; therefore the models should not be applied to areas outside the range of the data. However, the modelling approach is of general applicability and can be used to predict the conflicts of land uses between forestry and agriculture in other areas.