A Quantitative Economics Of Seasonality In Bus Patronage In Nigeria

Abstract

Seasonal variation is a well-known phenomenon, in many endeavrous and enterprises. Passenger of patronage of road transportation by bus is generally implicated as exhibiting excessive seasonality. The study thus set out to empirically investigate the myth or reality of the thesis that trip generation and trip attraction can be significantly season- determined. Collecting time series data over a three-year period from thee most respectable and scientifically managed bus service in the Nigerian private sector, seasonal variations were computed after necessary validation precautions had been taken to obviate thee infiltration of biases. Deseasonalised figures; in the form of a matrix were generated and juxtaposed to the unadjusted original data. Findings led logically to the upholding of the governing hypothesis that bus patronage by a high incidence of seasonality. Apposite recommendations were then made, sequel to highlighting of policy implications of findings.

Key words: seasonality, bus patronage.

Journal of Agriculture and Social Research Vol.4(1) 2004: 72-81