Modeling and Prediction of the Impact of Climate Change on Flooding in Aguata Agricultural Zone, Anambra State, Nigeria

Abstract

Climate change has significantly influenced flooding events, particularly in agricultural zones where extreme weather conditions lead to increased runoff and water accumulation. Hence, the objective of this paper was to model and predict the impact of climate change on flooding in the Aguata Agricultural Zone of Anambra State, Nigeria using Utilizing Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land use data, and climate records, employing Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques to generate flood risk maps. Key hydrological factors, including rainfall intensity, topography, soil infiltration rates, and vegetation cover, were analyzed. The study shows a total flow accumulation of 2,823,864.50 m² and average flow accumulation of 13.81 m², a current mean flood risk of 10.98 mm and total flood risk of 2,244,474.11 mm, and a predicted mean flood risk of 22.12 mm and a total flood risk of 4,523,622.06 mm for the next ten years due to intensified rainfall patterns. The findings emphasize the need for sustainable flood mitigation strategies, improved drainage systems, and climate adaptation policies to minimize the adverse effects of flooding on agricultural productivity in the region.