Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Ogbia Local Government Area Bayelsa State, Nigeria from 1993 To 2023

Abstract

The objective of this paper was to examine the rainfall and temperature trends in Ogbia Local Government Area (LGA) Bayelsa State, Nigeria from 1993 to 2023 by obtaining a 30-year dataset from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) using the SARIMA model, which combines seasonal and non-seasonal components to capture periodic variations  effectively. The results revealed a significant increase in annual rainfall from 1993 to 2023, with an annual trend of +15.86 mm/year. Rainfall ranged from 2,252.9 mm in 2020 to 4,658 mm in 2021, with an average of 2,962.31 mm, showing notable interannual variability. July was the wettest month (473 mm), whereas December was the driest month (29 mm). Projections indicate annual rainfall will rise from 3,231.95 mm in 2025 to 3,628.49 mm by 2050, reflecting intensified rainfall patterns. Temperature analysis revealed a gradual warming trend, with an average of 31.66°C and extremes ranging from 30.88°C to 32.72°C. February is the hottest month (34.4°C), while May to July sees cooler temperatures due to rainfall. Projections suggest temperatures will rise to 33.4°C by 2050, with a statistically significant warming trend (R² = 0.584, p < 0.001). Temperature anomalies range from -2.0°C to +2.22°C, with moderate variability. The study urges climate adaptation through afforestation, urban planning, and climate-smart agriculture. Policymakers must prioritize renewable energy and public awareness to mitigate risks. Advanced research and stakeholder collaboration are essential to protect ecosystems, agriculture, and livelihoods.