Development and Simulations of a Mathematical Model for Monkey-Pox Transmission Disease in Nigeria

Abstract

Monkey pox causes a rash which can be uncomfortable, itchy, and painful and its early detection is vital to every control mechanisms. Hence, the objective of this paper was the development and simulation of a mathematical model for monkey-pox transmission disease in Nigeria using Ordinary Differential Equations. The feasible region of the model was verified and solutions positivity was shown. We achieved the disease free equilibrium and computed effective reproduction number,  of the model system. We show the global stability of disease free equilibrium and we found that the disease free equilibrium of the model system is globally asymptotically stable if Re < 1 and . The model system is considered mathematically and epidemiologically well posed. Furthermore, the simulations of the model shows that the average secondary cases of disease increases as exposed individual increases and rate of infection increases. Again, the effective reproduction number reduces as vaccination increases and it is observed that as exposed nonhuman transmits at low rate than symptomatic reduced, it reduces the secondary cases of the disease.