Analysis of Forest Dynamics using Landscape Metrics and Markov Chain Model in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria

Abstract

Forest Canopy density (FCD) is an important index in the assessment and monitoring of forest ecosystems and it is a significant indicator for potential management interventions. The objective of this study was to analyse forest cover and landscape changes with Landsat images of 1990 and 2018 using FCD and Landscape metrics and, Markov Chain and CA-Markov to project the forest cover classes in Omo Forest Reserve. The FCD was obtained from the combination of data from the Advance Vegetation Density index (AVI), Bare soil index (BI), and Forest Shadow Index (FSI). Four categories of change were identified in the reserve, no change, growth, degradation, and deforestation. There was no change in 41798.79ha (44.36%), growth had 22498.11ha (23.87%), degradation with 24916.05ha (26.45%), and deforestation with the least change with 5006.43 (5.32%). Deforestation had the least area coverage with 5006.43 ha. Degradation with a change rate of 0.27 % contributed more in terms of change. There was a slight increase in the values of the three diversity indices (SHDI, SHEI, SIDI) while a high degree of homogeneity is recorded in the no forest class, and the three others classes were fragmented. The 28years projection showed a slight change with no forest area gaining 1.7% while the high forest density losing 2%. Assessment and monitoring of the forest ecosystem will enhance its ecosystem services potential.