Discrete-Time Markov Chain Application to Population Growth Control in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria

Abstract

The study considered the birth gap with four states, length of breastfeeding with four states and type of contraceptives used with five states, by mothers with at least three conceptions in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria. Data was obtained from the population using a self-designed and administered questionnaire. Results showed that the steady state probability of birth gap was highest at state 4 which is > 24 months implying that 3 out of five women on the long – run will space their births at more than 2 years which ultimately will lead to lower child birth, improved mother’s welfare and healthier children. Also, the distribution of mothers and their switching after each period of childbirth shows that contraceptives are indeed effective in controlling conception. Lastly, the transition probabilities of the states are significantly greater than zero and the state are dependent on each other (p < 0.05). The study therefore concluded that increased birth gaps, elongated length of breastfeeding and the use of contraceptives by mothers in Lagos Metropolis when combined will ultimately lead to slowing childbearing and population growth rate thereby serving as strong instruments in population growth control.