Trend of neonatal mortality in Nigeria from 1990 to 2017 using time series analysis

Abstract

The study examined the incidence of the rate of Neonatal Mortality in Nigeria. The incidence tested with use of Time Series Analysis (ARIMA). The trend plot of the incidence shows that there has been steady decrease in the incidence rate over the years. The series was stationarity using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test, the result found to be stationary. The Correlogram of the incidence also supports the stationarity of the series at 1% level of  significance. The model that best describes the incidence was tested using the Box-Jenkins four step procedures, which involve identification, explanation, diagnostic and forecasting. ARMA (1, 1), and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) models were tested, and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model happens to be the best model that best fits the series. The time series analysis shows that neonatal mortality rate has reduced by 17.8% from 51. 7% in the year 1990 to 33. 9% in the year 2017.

Keywords: Auto regression, Moving average, Mortality, Stationarity, Correlogram