Spatial and temporal drought analysis in the north central region of Nigeria

Abstract

This study examined the occurrence of drought in north central Nigeria. Problems related to drought includes: unpredictable commencement and end time of rainfall season, seasonal rainfall fluctuations, long period of no rainfall. Monthly rainfall data was obtained from the Nigeria Metrological Agency (NIMET) Lagos. This covers up to 51 years for seven different metrological stations namely: Lafia, Ilorin, Markurdi, Jos, Lokoja, and Minna and Abuja. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was adopted for this study. SPI approach requires a transformation to the initial distribution of rainfall to achieve a normalized distribution. Drought analysis indicates 1980s as the decade with worst drought effect as drought incidences were observed in Jos, Minna, Ilorin and Markurdi stations and 1983 as the only year in which drought occurred simultaneously across four different stations.

Keywords: Drought Risk, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Metrological Drought, Time Scale