Linear regression long-term energy demand forecast modelling in Ogun State, Nigeria

Abstract

This study uses linear regression analysis technique to forecast the energy load demand in Ogun State and the population for a 10-year period. Energy Demand data for the state for the years 2016 and 2017 was obtained from Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company (IBEDC) and the population data collected from the National Population Commission. The result shows a population growth rate of 3.35% per year. The Energy Consumption Demand should not rise above 1,365,024.72MWh for a population of 7,791,237 by the year 2028, showing an increase of 53% from 892,170.95MWh. The result of this work is very useful to energy distribution company (IBEDC) for their operational and planning activities for continued satisfactory service delivery.

Keywords: Load forecasting, Energy Demand, Long-Term Forecast, Linear Regression