Markovian approach for the analysis and prediction of weekly rainfall pattern in Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria

Abstract

A stochastic model to study weekly rainfall pattern has been presented in this paper. The Markovian method was used to predict and analyze weekly rainfall pattern of Makurdi, Benue state, Nigeria for a period of eleven years (2005-2015). After some successful iterations of the model, its stabilizes to equilibrium probabilities, revealing that in the long-run 22% of the weeks during rainy season in Makurdi, will experience no rainfall , 50% will experience low rainfall, 25% will experience moderate rainfall and 2% will experience high rainfall. The model also reveals that, a week of high rainfall cannot be followed by another week of high rainfall , a week of high rainfall cannot be followed by a week of no rainfall, and a week of moderate rainfall cannot precede a week of high rainfall. These results are important information to the residents of Markudi and environmental management scientists to plan for the uncertainty of rainfall.

Keywords: Markov chain, Weekly Rainfall, Transition Probabilities, Equilibrium probabilities Probability State Vector, Makurdi.