A study on production behaviour and instability of rice in Nigeria 1960-2015

Abstract

The paper attempted to analysed production instability in rice crop in Nigeria over a period of five decades using time series data sourced from FAO, NBS and NAERLS. Magnitude of instability in yield, area under cultivation and production was obtained using Coefficient of Variation (CV) and Coppock’s Instability Index (CII). Sources of production instability were estimated using Hazell’s Decomposition model. The findings revealed that, production instability was moderate during overall period (1960-2015) and low in the other periods thus, indicating low variability in production growth. Area instability was higher than yield variability in all the periods, meaning that, production instability was as a result of area expansion and the results at states and zones level also showed similar trend. Highest instability was observed in Katsina, Kano, Kwara and Anambra states, while lowest was noticed in Kaduna and Benue states. Decomposition analysis indicated that, change in average of rice production was as a result of change in mean area in almost all states and zones, while change in area variance and change in the residuals were major sources of change in variance of rice production during the study period. The results implied that, policies and agricultural programmes and other national interventions had impacted the most in increasing production through expansion in area under rice cultivation. The study therefore recommends policy trust towards increase in yield per hectare as there is limit to area expansion.