A Modified Exponential Distribution for Predicting Long Term Unemployment Rate

Abstract

The segment of those in the labour force who are keenly looking for work but could not find it at least 20 hours during the reference period are considered to be in unemployment state. This is among the biggest threats to social stability in many countries including Nigeria. Several studies have been conducted on the modelling and forecasting of unemployment rate. But these studies gives only short term predictions. This research work modified the exponential distribution that can give a long-term prediction of unemployment rate of a country. The modified distribution satisfied the condition for a distribution. The result shows that if on the average four million persons entered the unemployment state of Nigeria's labour market in 2016, then by the modified exponential distribution, 3814918 persons (7.16 %) will likely join the unemployment state by 2017, 13693214 persons (25.7 %) by 2020, 25969155 persons (48.74 %) by 2025, 34440832 persons (64.64 %) by 2030, 44313800 persons (83.17 %) by 2040, 49013183 persons (91.99 %) by 2050 and so on. In order to avoid the negative eect of unemployment on the Nigeria's economy and even Nigeria as a nation, practical measures must be taken by the government to reduce unemployment to the barest minimum.