Forecasting Nigeria annual yam production using Grey System Model

Abstract

Demand for reliable and accurate annual crop production forecast has been on the increase in recent time, because it avails the famers and the government opportunity to plan ahead of time, with regard to import or export in the event of shortfall or surplus to ensure food security of the respective nation. A GM(1,1) system model that forecast the Nigeria annual yam production has been developed and tested on known data. The data used in the research were collected from the archive of Central Bank of Nigeria for a period of Nine years (2010-2018). The fitted result from the model showed 98.97% accuracy, this indicate that, the model is reliable and dependable. Therefore, results from the model could serve as a guide to the yam farmers and the government to plan strategies for high yam production in the country.