Assessment of the changes in the yields of millet crop under different scenarios of climate change using DSSAT model

Abstract

Agriculture in Mali is vulnerable to climate change. Rainfall remains uncertain for the future, while the increase in temperature is almost a certainty. The objective of this present study was to assess the performance of DSSAT model in simulating the yield of two millet varieties in two agro-ecological zones of Mali under different scenarios of climate change.The performance of two millet varieties in two agro-ecological zones of Mali was assessed using Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) model under different climate scenarios. Two year experiments were therefore conducted at The Agricultural Research Station of Sotuba located in Sudanian zone and Cinzana in Sahelian zone according to a randomised complete block design with 4 replications. The treatments included Control, Manure 23:10:17 (5000 kg/ha) NPK 15: 15: 15 (50 kg/ha) and NPK+Manure. DSSAT model was used to simulate crop grain yields under two different weather conditions (historical and future). Millet grain yields were higher under the simulations with historical weather data than the simulations with climate change scenarios. Simulation of climate change effects on millet grain yield showed that all scenarios underestimated crop yield compared to the baseline for all treatments and all varieties (CHO, Sanioni, Sosat and IBV8001) All of the varieties showed lowest grain yields under the four treatments for ACCESS1-0 (Hot-Wet) among the scenarios. Based on these findings, it is suggested that, policy should be developed to enhance farmers’ adaptation strategies in the Sudanian and Sahelian zones of Mali

Keywords: Agriculture, Rainfall, Temperature, Treatments, Model, Simulation, Grain Yield.