Application of Discrete Event Simulation in Mine Production Forecast

Abstract

Mine production forecast is pertinent to mining as it serves production goals for a production period. Perseus Mining Ghana Limited (PMGL), Ayanfuri, deterministically forecasts mine production which sometimes result in significant variation from the actual production. This paper developed an innovative stochastic discrete event simulation model to predict production for two excavators at a pit in PMGL site using Arena^® Software. Time and motion studies of the shovel-truck system were conducted to build the stochastic model and production was predicted for four weeks. The results showed a total average production of 210 414.86 BCM ± 3 301.59 BCM at 95% confidence interval. The total average production reflected a variance of 2.34% from the actual production of 215 341 BCM. The deviation was low as compared to the deterministic planned production variance which was 5.44%.

Keywords: Stochastic, Simulation, Deterministic, Production Forecast