Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental and Anthropogenic Variables – A Spatial Multi- Criteria Approach

Abstract

Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana, accounting for over three million cases and thousands of deaths annually. The risks of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria are characterized by spatial and temporal variation across the country. This research sought to use GIS and multi-criteria decision analysis to produce a predictive model of malaria using eight risk factors ranging from environmental to anthropogenic. Each of the risk factors was classified into three classes of malaria risk according to how it impacts malaria prevalence. The classified risk factors were finally overlaid through the use of weighted overlay after weights were determined from them using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Results indicate that high risk areas are concentrated at the central as well as the west-southern parts of the country consisting mainly of the Ashanti, Brong Ahafo, Eastern, Central and the Western Regions. No area was classified as low risk while 53.51% and 46.49% were classified as medium and high risk respectively. The risk map created can serve not only as a predictive tool, but can be used to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of malaria
transmission.

Keywords: Malaria, GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Weighted Overlay