Geostatistical prediction of future volcanic eruption and risk assessment for the Mount Cameroon Volcano.

Abstract

This study presents a statistical analysis forecasting a possible future volcanic eruption in Mount Cameroon. The study is primarily undertaken to assess the risk, determine the frequency of the successive eruptions and from this, forecast a possible future eruption of the Mount Cameroon volcano. This will assist in future planning and possibly put in place hazard mitigation  strategies that will forestall the loss of lives and property. Results show that the series of Mount Cameroon eruptions are random and independent of time. Also, it is predicted within the limits of any reasonable doubt that the interval for the next major eruption that will emit lava with a volume of about 10million m3 is probably in the year 2022. This extrapolation is in line with the May 28, 2000 eruption barely fourteen months after the March – April 1999 eruption. However, the timing may be earlier or later and the volume may be more or less since the predicted values are approximations.