A retrospective analysis and monitoring of the spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria

Abstract

This study is aimed at analyzing and monitoring the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria using some selected statistical tools. The data used for  the study comprised of daily reported new cases of the pandemic as of 18th August 2020. The data was sourced from the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC). Some time-series models were used to estimate the trend and make forecasts of the prevalence of the pandemic while control charts were employed in monitoring the variations in the mean number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily. The Individual values, Moving
Average and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control charts were employed for this purpose. The study revealed that, although efforts to contain the spread of the virus are yielding some positive results, the daily spread of the virus in Nigeria is out of control. It was recommended that the government should intensify measures to curb the spread of the virus in the country.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, control charts, Trend, EWMA, Moving Average.