A stochastic assessment of the effect of global warming on rainfall and agriculture

Abstract

Crop production depends on rainfall, and rainfall is affected by extreme weather conditions. Markov chain and time series model are adapted for the study of the pattern of rainfall in the North Central Region of Nigeria. Results reveal the long run distributions of the dry and wet days to be 0.7841, and 0.2159 respectively. The mean return time to dry and wet days is 1.2753 and 4.6318 respectively. Further result reveals that the volume of water due to rainfall is on the increase.

KEYWORDS: Global Warming; Rainfall; Markov Process; Time Series; Agriculture.