Mixed-Input Residual Network for Air Temperature Forecasting by Low-Power Embedded Devices

Abstract

Accuracy and model compactness are essential requirements for weather forecasting models designed for operation on low-power embedded devices. This study developed Mixed-Input Residual Network (MIRNet), a compact temperature-forecasting deep neural network model. MIRNet integrates stacked bidirectional long short-term memory layers using concatenated 1-dimensional and 2-dimensional convolutional layers to improve model accuracy. MIRNet was trained and tested on two datasets: one, IfeData, comprising historical weather data from Ile-Ife, Nigeria and the other a standard weather forecasting dataset called the Jena dataset. Training was carried out using 100 epochs of data partitioned in the standard 80:20 ratio, with an adaptable learning rate strategy. The model was tested for Nth-hour-ahead prediction for 1N24; where N are natural numbers, and performance quantified using metrics such as mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE). The model was also implemented on a Raspberry Pi 4 device with a 1.8 GHz 64-bit quad-core ARM Cortex-A72 processor. The model achieved a MSE of 1.00 x 10-3 on the IfeData dataset, and 1.23x10-4 on the Jena dataset for 1-hour ahead forecasting. This is currently the best verifiable result achieved on the Jena dataset by any prediction model globally. For Nth hour ahead forecasting, MIRNet achieved an MSE generally below 2.0x10-3 for all values of N on the standard Jena dataset. The MSE of MIRNet for N-sequential 1-hour ahead and single Nth hour predictions using the Jena dataset reveal quadratic and linear relationships with N respectively. The model compares favourably with existing models for multi-hour predictions. The developed model is compact and has good forecasting properties.