Simulation and Prediction of Urbanization in Makurdi City, Nigeria using CA-Markov Technique

Abstract

The intensification of anthropogenic activities covering agriculture, deforestation, expanding farmland, and urban centers are greatly changing the landscape across the globe. This study uses Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) computed from Landsat TM, ETM+ and OLI datasets of 1986, 2006 and 2016 respectively. These were analyzed using ArcGIS and IDRISI to make clear land use structures. These software enabled us to classify LULC into five classes to examine and monitor the changes that have taken place in the area. IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler was ran to model land use and land cover dynamic in the study area. CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict its spatio-temporal change rules and driving factors using DEM, distance to road and distance to water. The results showed that built-up areas have been on the increase from 24.10% in 2016 to 41.71% in the year 2036, with the spatial trend of built up areas showing that there is a growing trend in the city centre, spreading towards the fringes of north west, north east, sharing boundary with Nassarawa State relative to other directions. Urbanized land maintained the growth momentum while farmland area decreased and other land use types kept a relative stable level. Spatial raster contrast proved that CA-Markov model was in high consistency for the LUCC prediction. Makurdi city has changed dramatically, characterized with the shrinkage of farmland area, vegetation, primarily due to the urbanization and the trend is projected to intensify. Finally, the use of IDRISI in modeling LULC is a suitable approach to understand the future LULC pattern.

Keywords: LULCC, CA-Markov, Urbanization, Simulation, Landsat