Unveiling the power play: Exploring the intricacies of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s negotiations and their impact on the security of the Horn of Africa.

Abstract

The aim of this article was to investigate the domestic and geopolitical determinants of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam’s (GERD hereafter) negotiations and their impact on the Horn of Africa’s security, stability and peace. The study also aimed to explore the motivations and instruments of involvement of regional and global powers in the GERD’s negotiations. The research followed a mixed methods approach. Secondary data were collected from published books, chapters, articles, unpublished theses and dissertations, and primary data were collected from governmental documents, policies, agreements, archival sources, press releases, and statistical data on one hand and six key informants, on the other hand. Besides, the author attended four national and international conferences on GERD and its impact and gathered important information from the vibrant discussions. Content, discourse and thematic analysis were employed. The analysis is also supported by the political ecology theoretical framework. The results showed that both domestic and geopolitical determinants caused the impasse over the GERD, and these deadlocks have impacted the Horn of Africa’s security, stability and peace. In this regard, the involvement of external powers driven by their national interests on one hand, and the domestic-driven devious politicization of the triad negotiations on the other hand, have undermined the success of the GERD’s myriad processes and exacerbated the deadlock over the GERD and insecurities in the Horn. Thus, addressing the two determinants is critical for achieving positive negotiation outcomes over the GERD and promoting the Horn’s security, peace and stability.