Simulation model to determine the effect of climate change on the population density of the cotton mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) infested cucumber

Abstract

Climate change and sustainable development have become among the most important global changes that have attracted the attention of the scientific community around the world. We aimed to remodel a simulation model to study the potential effect of rising
temperatures because of the climatic change on the generation’s number of cotton mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis (Tinsley) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae). Firstly, generation numbers among three periods including reference period (2021 and 2022), current temperature effect, nearby future (2021–2040), and a far-future (2041–2060), were studied using the future climatic data obtained based on GHG-emissions scenarios (SSP-4.5). Our result highlights that there is a statistically significant difference in the mean quantities among the various levels of climate and generation in the Qalubiya, Beheira and El-Fayoum governorates, respectively. Moreover, there is significant differentiation in the data distribution among DDUs-values in the future than those during the current climatic state compared to 2021,2040 and 2060 in different locations. These results show great differentiation of needed DDUs for each generation in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 compared with the current climatic state and among each other. This is mostly related to
the expected temperature rise with mention to the significant differentiation from DDUs needed for the first generation compared to the consecutive following generation. The value of DDUs in the future compared to those under the current climatic state differs in the data distribution. These findings offer knowledge that will influence how future modifications to the pest will be controlled .