Empirical analysis of extreme weather conditions and aviation safety in Nigeria

Abstract

The frequency of delay, diversion and outright cancellation occasioned by poor weather has affected the Nigerian aviation industry and serious safety implication.This study therefore examines the influence of weather conditions on aviation safety in Nigeria. Secondary data basically from Nigeria Meteorological Agency such as information on thunderstorm, fog occurrence and rainfall from 2004 to 2013 and data obtained from Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria on air accident induced by extreme weather within the same period were analysed using Multiple Regression Analysis. Results show that low visibility as a result of fog occurrence causes four (4) air traffic accidents more than other weather conditions and that Lagos experienced two (2) air accidents more than other airports during the period under study.  So also the value of R² shows a value of 77.8% which implies that there is variation in the dependent variable (Airport Operation) which can be predicted by independent variables (Weather conditions). The F-statistic value of 62.892 is also found to be statistically significant at 5% (p<0.05) which shows that weather condition has significant influence on aviation safety. Baseline studies on flight operation, government intervention in aviation industry, maintenance culture were recommended.

Keywords: Fog, Thunderstorm, Rainfall, Safety, Accident