Prediction of the streamflow of Hadejia-Jama’are-Komadugu-Yobe-River Basin, North Eastern Nigeria, using swat model

Abstract

Hadejia-Jama’are-Komadugu-Yobe River basin (HJKYRB) is one of the major river basins the water resources of which are vital to sustenance of the livelihood of the growing population in Northern Nigeria. It is however among those of which the proper management of the scare resources among competing demands is of growing concern. The SWAT model which could potentially be useful as a decision support tool was therefore evaluated for applicability in the basin.  Thirty years(1971 to 2000) of daily meteorological data of a station were used for the model sensitivity analysis. The model was calibrated and validated using in each case 12 years of observed stream flow data from a gauging station. The periods covered by the calibration and validation data were 1974 to1985 and 1989 to 2000 respectively.  The sensitivity analysis identified 17 model parameters as important with Moisture Condition II Curve Number (CN₂) as the most sensitive. The coefficient of determination (R²) and Nasch-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE) obtained during calibration were0.57 and 0.51 respectively. For the validation R²was 0.71 while NSE was 0.65. The values ofR²and NSE obtained were within the acceptable range in literature. It was concluded therefore that the SWAT model could be useful as a decision support tool for water resources management policies in the basin.

Keywords: SWAT, calibration, Hadejia-Jama’are-Komadugu-Yobe, Stream flow