post-Adaptation vulnerability of cereals to rainfall and temperature variability in the federal capital territory of Nigeria

Abstract

This study assessed the vulnerability of cereals yield to climate change using an integrated and multi-scale quantitative approach. The objectives of this study include determining the level of climate variability, assessment of cereals yield sensitivity index, determining climate exposure index, determining adaptive capacity of farmers, assessment of the post adaptation vulnerability of cereals yield to climate change. Socioeconomic data were obtained through administration of questionnaires. Thirty years data of temperature and rainfall as well as fifteen years data of annual cereals yield were used. Mean and standard deviation, standardized coefficient of skewness (Z₁) and kurtosis (Z₂), simple linear regression and time series statistics analysis were used in this study for the analysis of data. Finding depicts that the exposure index of rainfall is low but high for temperature. Cereals sensitivity index/degree of crop yield failure is more from 2000 – 2010 and significant difference was observed in sensitivity index for all the cereals. Adaptive capacity of farmers to climate change is high in Bwari and AMAC but low in Gwagwalada, Kuje, Abaji and Kwali. Post adaptation vulnerability of maize, rice and millet yield to rainfall and temperature is low in AMAC and Bwari but high in Gwagwalada, Kwali, Abaji and Kuje. Post adaptation vulnerability of sorghum in relation to rainfall is low in all the area councils in the FCT except Abaji. In relation to temperature, vulnerability of sorghum is high in Abaji and Kuje but low in AMAC, Gwagwalada, Kwali and Bwari. It was recommended that there is need to place climate change within the top priority of developmental context, and provision and infrastructure as well as reliable agricultural extension service.

Key Words: Cereals, Post-Adaptation, Vulnerability, Rainfall, Temperature, Variability, FCT