Cereal Productivity in Ethiopia: An Analysis Based on ERHS Data

Abstract

This paper examines the recent phenomenon of cereal yield growth in
Ethiopia and tries to see yield responses to modern inputs such as chemical fertilizer and improved seeds on major cereal crops. It bases its analysis on two rounds of the Ethiopian Rural Household Surveys (ERHS). Results show that cereal yield grew by 21 percent during the period 1999 and 2009, much lower than the national figure, which is 60 percent, for the same period. This growth was contributed by wheat, maize and barley, which grew by 62, 19 and 11 percent respectively. The study further indicates that the source of this yield growth can be partly explained by modestly increasing use of modern inputs. It shows more intensification of modern agricultural inputs than that which the CSA data shows during the period. Overall, regression results in the two periods show that yield response to fertilizer and improved seeds was found to be statistically significant. However, using panel data analysis, the study also found an indication of some yield growth, unrelated to inputs such as seeds and fertilizer. This cannot be explained by weather changes and needs further research to capture its source in a time series setting.

Keywords: Cereal yield, yield growth, yield response to modern agricultural
inputs