Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Output and Adaptation Measures in Ethiopia

Abstract

Part of the literature informs that different regions of the world contribute to
greenhouse gas emissions in varying degrees, in global warming. It also highlights that
these regions influence different influences from the warming effects, ranging from
extreme net loss to net gain. Importantly, it emphasizes that countries in the tropical
regions, such as Ethiopia, are particularly vulnerable to these changes. This study
utilized a production function approach that considers the physiology of plants and
animals to assess the long-term economic impacts of rainfall variability on the
agricultural output. The analysis is based on time-series data covering the period from
1961 to 2012. The results of the econometric analysis confirmed the existence of an
optimal volume of rainfall. When this optimal threshold is exceeded, the benefits of
rainfall diminish indicating that the country experiences short-lived and negligible
gains from climate change, while enduring comparatively higher economic loses in the
long run. Furthermore, there is a probable trend of excessive rainfall during the rainy
seasons, surpassing the optimal amount. In order to delay the onset of diminishing
benefits of rainfall, it is crucial to undertake mitigation and adaptation efforts promptly and resolutely. Among others, too much rainfall, which is catastrophic, can also be an opportunity to use rainwater harvesting to fill the moisture-stress gap that can be
created due to the early stoppage of rainfall. Most importantly, since the adverse
impacts are caused mainly by global negative externalities, the findings suggest a
need to complement the global approach with the local adaptations of smallholder
farmers to address the negative impact of climate change.