Rainfall Variability and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopian agriculture is mostly rain fed, whereas inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability is high and droughts are frequent in many parts of the country. Rainfall variability has historically been a major cause of food insecurity and famines in the country. Surprisingly, however, the relationships between rainfall variability and fluctuations in agricultural production at regional and sub-regional scales have not been studied in detail. The objective of this study is to analyze rainfall variability and trends, and examine vulnerability of food grain production to rainfall variability in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia. The data used for the study were historical rainfall records from 12 stations (for the 1975-2003 period) and available time series data on area coverage, production and yield of cereals during the meher season- main growing season (for the 1994-2003 period). The results reveal that there are significant intra-regional differences in rainfall amount, variability and trend; and the variability increases as rainfall amount decreases. Rainfall amount is higher and its variability lower in the western part of the region than in the eastern. Four drought years have occurred over the period 1975-2003, of which two were extreme in severity. Examination of trends in annual and seasonal rainfall generally shows absence of any systematic patterns of change across the region. Significant correlations were observed between the seasonal rainfall and crop production. Inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability is therefore an important influence on food security of farming households; it also suggests that predicted climatic change will have significant impacts. Hence, water resources development including household level rainwater harvesting needs to be widely undertaken as it has a potential to serve as an adaptation strategy to current rainfall variability as well as to future changes in the climate.

Ethiopian Journal of Development Research Vol. 29 (1) 2007: pp. 1-34