Detecting past, present and future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services: remote sensing, GIS and modelling approaches in the Borana Pastoral areas of southern Ethiopia

Abstract

In this study, detailed investigations of changes in ecosystem service values in response to past, present and future changes in land use and land cover (LULC) were undertaken for the first time in the Borana areas of southern Ethiopia. LULC of 2034 was simulated based on LULC maps of 1986, 2002 and 2018 using integrated Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-Markov) modelling. Socio-economic and biophysical factors of land use change were used to derive LULC suitability maps in Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) procedure using Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS). The model performed very well in its overall ability to predict LULC change of 2018. Results from CA–Markov model indicated that bush encroachment would continue to increase at the expense of grassland in the next 16 years unless corrective measures would be taken to reduce the encroachment. The results of this study also revealed that LULC dynamics between 1986 and 2018 in the studied landscape, had resulted in a loss of ecosystem services of about USD 185 million. If not abetted, this loss will increase to 195 million US$ by 2034. Outputs of this study can be used as an early warning information for understanding the future effects of LULC changes on ecosystem services in the Borana pastoral areas of southern Ethiopia.