Habitat suitability and distribution of endangered Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis) and the potential effects of climate change on its habitat in the Ethiopian highlands

Abstract

The habitat of the endemic and endangered Ethiopian wolf and populations have been declining because of climate change, coupled with various anthropogenic disturbances, which has restricted the species in Afroalpine geographic range. Understanding the effects of climate change on its range is vital to promoting effective conservation strategies. We aimed to predict the effects of environmental variables on the suitable spatial distribution of the species, under current and various future climatic scenarios using a Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). We used the averages of the three shared socioeconomic pathways: low (ssp126), intermediate (ssp245), and worst (ssp585), developed by the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5). We also used the average of the two general circulation models, considering 2050 and 2070. Our results show the maximum temperature of the warmest month and ecoregion had the highest percent contributions to the suitability index, 65.4 and 16.1, respectively. Of the total area of Ethiopia, only 2,779,658 ha was predicted to be a potentially suitable area under current conditions. The projected suitable areas of C. simensis under future climate change show an increase, range shifts, fragmentation, and small changes in availability. Our predicted results showed that the species has a small, fragmented suitable habitat. Habitat restoration, reduction of anthropogenic pressures, and climate change mitigation should be emphasized to improve the conservation of C. simensis.