Current status and future invasion potential of Lantana camara L. under the changing climate and land cover in the central rift Valley, Ethiopia

Abstract

In Ethiopia, Lantana camara is listed among the top ten worst invasive weeds. Lantana has become a chronic environmental, social, economical and health problem in different parts of the country, mainly in the eastern escarpments of Hararghe, Somali and Wollo. Understanding the potential distribution of this invasive species will give useful information in planning effective strategies to control its invasion. This study aimed to examine the current (2020) and future invasion potential of L. camara in the Central Rift Valley (CRV), Ethiopia, under climate and land cover change using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Under the current climate scenario, 90.5% of the study area was unsuitable for the establishment and invasion of L. camara, while 1.4% was highly suitable. The model predicted that the rate of L. camara invasion will increase across the CRV as increasing temperature undermining the competitive power of indigenous species. In 2050, a highly suitable area for L. camara establishment is expected to increase by 22.2%, while the moderately suitable area is projected to increase by 11.4% under RCP4.5 climate scenarios. Compared to the current climatic condition, in 2070, a highly suitable area for the species is projected to increase by 41.7%. With the current cover, this invasive species had already caused a significant impact in many parts of the country. Further invasion of the species would lead to serious  environmental and socio-economic damage, thereby threatening the livelihood of the community. Thus, a well-coordinated  management strategy should primarily target areas that are suitable for L. camara.

Key words/phrases: Biodiversity, Climate change, Ecological niche modelling, Invasion, Lantana camara, Suitability.