Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Demand For Children In Jimma City, Ethiopia: An Application Of Count Data Model

Abstract

Using cross-section data on urban households from Jimma city, Southwestern Ethiopia, in this paper we apply the economic theory of consumer choice and examine some endogenous household characteristics that affect the demand for children among urban households in Ethiopia. Based on parameter estimates derived from a count data model, we also simulate the average number of children desired by a woman of median urban household characteristics and assess the extent to which an exogenously set population policy goal of lower fertility can be achieved. The results of our study indicate that enhancing paternal and maternal education, altering the economic value of children, increasing household income, and delaying the marriage age as important policy measures that should be pursued to reduce fertility. Institutional approaches that involve faith-based initiatives are also relevant. An important implication of the study is that by using measures that target these socio-economic variables via market incentives, fertility levels among urban households in Jimma and other urban areas of Ethiopia with similar demographic features can be reduced.


Eastern Africa Social Science Research Review Vol.18(2) 2002: 43-68