Enormity of Africa’s MPOX data: A comparative analysis

Abstract

Objective: To demonstrate similarity and dissimilarity of MPOX infections between Africa and other regions using multi-agency data.

Background: MPOX was first reported in DRC in 1970 and transmitted around the world. It was declared public health emergency of  international concern on August 14, 2024. Other regions have reported more infections with minimal deaths, but Africa is experiencing  spiraling cases and mortalities amid gaps. Delays in acknowledging the situation, and attendant challenges are concomitant with allocating resources. We use data to demonstrate the MPOX situation in Africa and make recommendations.

Method: We analyze data provided by multi-agency sources: WHO, 1st January 2022-June 30, 2024; Africa CDC, January-August 2024, WHO  Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP) September 2024 to February 2025; International Organization for Migration  Mpox preparedness and Response plan; and in-country response teams. Twelve countries in each WHO classified region are selected  based on the following criteria: either have reported high cases of MPOX or registered confirmed MPOX-related death in the period. We  used Tukey HSD post hoc to compare regional mean cases and case fatality rates. Based on results, we had key informant interviews and  focused group discussion with relevant in-country authority and drew recommendations.

Results: Regional mean MPOX cases (95% CI,  3.36, 2.1, 0.01; P<0.01) are not statistically different. Case fatality rate in Africa is higher, (95 CI, 12, 6.4, 0.4; P<0.05). Like COVID-19,  response is marked by low levels of preparedness, and loose international cooperation.

Conclusion: Africa requires strengthening health  system and enhanced international cooperation.