Impact of land use change on urban heat island in Etsoko West, Southern Nigeria

Abstract

The phenomenon of urbanization and population growth is a major global concern, as both emerging and old cities continue to expand, particularly in developing countries. Nigeria's urban population has grown dramatically over the last five decades, resulting in shrinking green spaces and urban forest, as well as increased urban island heat. As a result, this study looked into the existing and predicted land use and land cover (LULC), as well as land surface temperature change in Etsako West LGA of Edo State, Nigeria. The supervised maximum likelihood classification method was used to classify the town into four classes using Landsat data from 1987, 2001, and 2020. Similarly, LULC for the year 2040 was predicted using the Markov and CA-markov models. The Landsat Project manual was used to extract the land surface temperature. It was discovered that the built-up area increased over time, from 28.1 km² in 2001 to 103.07 km² in 2020, with a projected 166.93 km² in 2040. Furthermore, forestland decreased throughout time, but the decline was more pronounced in 2020, with decline of twice that of 2001. Cultivated/grassland land has increased over time and is expected to continue to do so in 2040, but surface water hasn't changed significantly. The average land surface temperature climbed from 25.67 °C in 1987 to 32.39 °C in 2020. The environmental impact of urban sprawl and rising urban heat cannot be overstated, as it includes both direct and indirect human and environmental consequences. As a result, eco-friendly strategies were recommended in ensuring sustainable urban growth and reducing urban island heat.