Utilization of fuzzy critical path method and fuzzy program evaluation and review technique for building a hydroelectric power station

Abstract

In this paper, fuzzy critical path method and fuzzy program evaluation and review technique are used to calculate the earliest project completion time for constructing a hydroelectric power plant project. Fuzzy trapezoidal numbers are used to estimate the activity time and determine the range of pessimistic to optimistic variation of time. Furthermore, the minimum and maximum times of project completion duration were calculated by using arithmetic operations and ranking of fuzzy trapezoidal numbers. These hybrid methods are able to deal with the limitations associated with classical critical path method and program evaluation and review technique. The fuzzy techniques were applied to network activities in a manner similar to the classical methods for optimizing the project completion duration, thereby minimizing the cost of the project. Analysis was carried out to determine the critical path through the use of fuzzy critical path method. The fuzzy program evaluation and review technique was also used to determine the probability of completing the project at a scheduled time. These two methods were then compared and the most probable scenarios were analyzed. Finally, it was concluded that fuzzy program evaluation and review technique is better than fuzzy critical path method and more efficient in terms of early project completion time.