From assessment ex post to ex ante estimates: Risks analysis of agricultural development projects in Algeria

Abstract

Today, investors want a larger visible on the validity of time limits and potential financial losses. The study concerns the risk analysis of agricultural projects. On a sample of project achieving enterprises working in area, belonging to three zones: mountain, steppe, and desert, a qualitative analysis made to assess the severity of the causes of risks and a quantitative analysis made on several simulations during the achievement of the project by random edition ( type Monte Carlo simulation leading to cumulated probability distributions, it will result in a classification of potential risks and an assessment of contingency reserves for risks ( time limits, cost ) for parts of works of the project. This article concludes that the formalization and use of the risk practice the development project increase the predictability of results and enrich the knowledge of participants.

Key words: Agricultural project risk, Monte Carlo, classification of risks, contingency reserves