Mathematical modelling of transmission dynamics of Marburg virus with effective quarantine approach

Abstract

Marburg virus disease (MVD) is a severe infection with an extremely high fatality rate, spread through direct and indirect contact. Recently, there was an outbreak of the deadly MVD disease. We studied the transmission dynamics of MVD through the SEQIR model and determined the basic reproduction number, the local stability, and the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. This study aims to mathematically model the transmission dynamics of MVD using an effective Quarantine Approach. Building upon existing research, the model introduces a quarantine compartment and analyses the disease-free equilibrium.
The results indicate that quarantining exposed individuals effectively curb the transmission of MVD and prevents secondary infections. Additionally, the introduction of treatment in the model ensures the survival of patients. However, it is emphasized that further research is essential to develop specific treatments for MVD, as preventive measures alone may not be sufficient to control the disease's spread.