Young Black Men’s Risk to Firearm Homicide in Night Time Johannesburg, South Africa: a Retrospective Analysis based on the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System

Abstract

Based on data from the South African National Injury Mortality Surveillance System (NIMSS), an epidemiological surveillance system of fatal injuries, this article reports on a retrospective analysis of the data on homicide in Johannesburg, South Africa. In South Africa, as is the case in other African countries, the collection of comprehensive, quality injury data, on which inferential analyses can be conducted, remains a challenge. As such, the analysis here was drawn from the NIMSS for homicides in Johannesburg for the years 2001 to 2005, as this period offered one the most complete datasets for homicide for the city. Focusing on the 5153 night time homicide victims, a binary logistic regression model was utilised to identify the likelihood of specific risk factors occurring in certain groups of people and contexts. The results illustrate that sex, race and time at night are particularly important risk factors for night time firearm homicide and the most at-risk population for night time homicide is urbanised young black men. The article concludes with a discussion of implications the results might have for preventative efforts, calling for programming targeted at young black men. Limitations of the investigation are noted.

Keywords: firearm, homicide, Johannesburg, interpersonal violence, night time, South Africa, young black males