Factors affecting the export value of Nigerian cashew nut: A time series analysis

Abstract

The study investigated the factors affecting the export value of cashew nut in Nigeria using a time series model. The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework and Bounds co-integration test to identify the factors affecting the value of cashew nut in the short run and long run. The trend analysis showed that cashew nut export value in Nigeria peaked in the year 2012 to 447 million dollars. Although there was a sharp fall in the value in 2013 to ca. 60 million dollars, the value has remained largely unstable since then oscillating between 100 and 300 million dollars. The result of the inferential time series analysis showed that cashew production and exchange rate have a positive significant impact on cashew nut export value while growth in gross domestic product (GDP) has a negative impact on cashew nut export value in the long run. In the short run, production and exchange rate have a positive effect on cashew nut export value while inflation and GDP growth have a negative effect on cashew nut export value. The study recommended provision of incentives for cashew farmers to improve cashew nut production as this will result in a growth in export value in the short and long run. Policies aimed at improving exchange rate and reducing the inflation rate should be pursued by government so as to further improve the export value of cashew nut in Nigeria.