Effect of Project Risk Management on the Success of the Itunda-Busanza Road Construction Project in Kicukiro District, Rwanda

Abstract

This study is about the effect of risk management on project success, and it used the Itunda-Busanza road construction project in Kicukiro district, Rwanda as a case study. The study was guided by the theory of change, the game theory and the prospect theory. The study population was 10,012 and using the Taro Yamane formula, the sample size used in this study was 384 respondents which included the project manager, risk officer, project team members and beneficiaries. The tools of data collection used were the documentations from relevant sources, questionnaires and interviews. This research used a descriptive and correlational research design. Quantitative data obtained from structured questionnaires and qualitative data was obtained through documentation and semi-structured interviews with relevant authorities involved in the project. Data analysis was carried out using the statistical software SPSS. Descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation were used to summarise the data obtained and inferential statistics such as the Pearson’s Correlation, ANOVA, coefficients test and Multiple Linear Regression. Fisher (F) and P-values were used to test the null hypotheses. In this study, thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. The study findings revealed the R value to be 0.986 which indicates a strong positive relationship between predictor and the dependent variable. The R square value of 0.972 shows that 97.2% of the variability in the outcome variable can be explained by the predictors. The coefficient of the predictors indicate effect on project success. Specifically Risk Identification (β1=0.666, p=0.00), Risk Analysis (β2=0.089, p=0.035) Risk Response (β3=0.141, p=0.002) and Risk Monitoring and Evaluation (β4=0.098, p=0.03). This indicates that all the coefficients of the predictors are statistically significant, as indicated by their associated significant values below 0.05. This explains that all four null hypotheses were tested and rejected to accept the alternative hypotheses. The study concluded that all the independent variables of the model specification had the greatest effect on the success of the Itunda-Busanza road construction project in Kicukiro district, Rwanda. The study recommends the practices of Risk Management which involve Risk Identification, Risk Analysis, Risk Response and Risk monitoring and Evaluation to promote project success in all construction projects.