Effects of climate change on rice and maize production in Nigeria from 1970 - 2012

Abstract

Rice and maize are two important crops that play significant roles in food security and building Nigeria’s foreign reserves. Threats to these crops have national security implications. Several studies have confirmed the threat that weather variability and climate change pose to the agriculture sector in Nigeria, which is largely weather dependent. This paper reports the effect of climatic variables on the output of these two important staples, rice and maize, in Nigeria. Secondary data for a 43-year period, 1970 – 2012, were used for the study. Data were collected on climatic variables such as mean annual rainfall and average daily temperature. The time trend analysis was used to examine the trends in the movement of climate variables and crop output, while, co-integration analysis was used to understand the relationship between the output of the selected crops and climatic variables.

Further, a long-run equilibrium relationship was observed between the mean annual rainfall and the average annual temperature for the rice model. Thus, mean annual rainfall positively affected rice output while mean daily temperature negatively influenced it. For the maize model, a long-run equilibrium relationship was observed amongst maize, rainfall and temperature. The resulting Error Correction  Model indicated that the previous year’s mean rainfall and mean temperature values had a strong positive influence on maize output.

Efforts at controlling the emission of greenhouse gases should be sustained globally to reduce the adverse impact of temperature rise for crops like maize. Investment in irrigation projects should be top priority to make water availability constant for farm use nationally to significantly increase the output of these important crops. Rice production can be concentrated in the southern and middle belts and maize in the northern part of the country to take advantage of the differences in the temperature requirements for the production of these crops.

Keywords: Arable crops, Climatic variables, Maize, Rice, Climate change