Predictive modelling of the potential future distribution of Vachellia nilotica within the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa

Abstract

Many regions of South Africa are prone to woody plant thickening. This can have an ecologically detrimental effect on the open savannas and grasslands. KwaZulu-Natal, a province on the east coast of South Africa, is currently experiencing an increase in both the density and distribution of Vachellia nilotica. This research aims to gain better insight into the potential distribution of this plant and to determine some of the main environmental conditions that promote its thickening. Using the Maxent programme to determine the potential distribution, a map was developed to illustrate the possible extent of V. nilotica within KwaZulu-Natal. It is estimated that a possible 800 968 ha (8.5%) of the province has a greater than 50% distribution probability, whereas in 26.9% of the province there is 25%–50% probability of V. nilotica inhabiting these areas. Using Maxent, it was determined that geology and altitude were key determinants for V. nilotica habitat selection. This model-based map will be particularly useful for conservation and rangeland planning for future management and control of the plant through being able to predict which areas of the province are more likely to be high potential regions for the thickening of V. nilotica.

Keywords: bush thickening, KwaZulu-Natal, Maxent, species distribution model, Vachellia nilotica