Lived Poverty and the Fate of African Democracies

Abstract

In comparative politics, economic development is a requisite for democracy. Democracy is deemed to fail in less developed countries as poverty has proven to be detrimental to democratic performance. This study offers a perspective on the effects of poverty on the fate of democracy in Africa using the Afrobarometer panel survey data (2002–2018). Recognising the ordered nature of the dependent variable, an ordered logistic regression model and descriptive statistics are used to examine the effect of lived poverty on the fate of African democracy. The results indicate that poverty in Africa has a mixed effect on democracy more generally. In particular, the analysis indicates that the experience of poverty, which we have termed ‘lived poverty’, has a negative effect on the demand and supply of democracy and on several attributes of political participation. The fact that the poor demand democracy less than the well-to-do while at the same time perceiving a limited supply of democracy, in our view, explains why more African regimes are consolidating as hybrid regimes instead of moving towards democratic consolidation.