Africanization of the World in the Third Milleniun: A Prognosis of Population Dynamics

Abstract

Dreaded doomsday ageing consequences, particularly in European countries and Japan, a result of past protracted fertility decline, provides a pivotal lesson. High- fertility Africa is perceived as having a unique historical opportunity, not only to avoid ageing but as some solution to the ageing world also. This article reviews the consequences of ageing in Europe: a predicament, particularly with the impossibility of low-fertility reversal. In contrast, Africa is argued as continuing with a young age structure, even with fertility conservatively put at replacement as early as 2035 to reflect relevant young generations' lower desires. With Europe allowed replacement fertility in the long-run, population projections are made. Resulting world regions' population shares show Africa's increasing, with AIDS argued as insignificant; similarly, pointing to population growth as never being deleterious. Attention, however, is directed to trends in Africa's young age structure, hence her historical unique opportunity: avoiding ageing and possibly lending its labour force to ageing Europe. Challenges of maintaining Africa's fertility above replacement, and labour export acceptance to Europe, are realized, but argued as positively surmountable.
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(Af. J. of Political Science: 2001 6(2): 59-76