Fluctuations in the South African recreation and leisure population with random disturbances

Abstract

Leisure and recreation are important in the promotion and improving the economic, social and environmental health as well as well being of communities. When economic and social disturbances occur; they tend to affect a significant proportion of population that is actively involved in leisure and recreation activities. The study adopts a biological stochastic model of population growth to examine fluctuations in recreational populations given the occurrence of random economic disturbances. The stochastic growth model is simulated using spread-sheet and is used in conjunction with time series model using data from Statistics South Africa Reports. The objective is to examine how people involved in recreation and leisure activities are affected by economic shocks. The results from the logistic growth model reveal that there was a decline in leisure and recreation population after the 2008/2009 world economic recession whereas time series results indicate that fluctuations exist in leisure and recreation expenditure due to shocks in economic variables. The suggestion in this study is that: sensitivity to shocks should be mitigated because recreation and leisure are vital for healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: Leisure and recreation, population, random disturbances.